THE CIVIL WAR IN MYANMAR: CAUSES, COURSE AND PATHWAYS TO PEACE

Myanmar, a country rich in culture and ethnic diversity, has been in the grip of civil war for more than seven decades. The conflict, which began in 1948 after independence from Britain, has been one of the longest in modern history. Its roots go back to the colonial past, when the British policy of divide and rule artificially intensified the contradictions between the Burmese majority and ethnic minorities such as the Karen, Shan, Kachin and Rakhindja [1]. One can cite a well-known example of how missionaries came to what was then called Burma to spread Christianity among those minorities where there was no particular attitude towards Buddhism. In this way they sowed the Christian religion in order to further create enmity between the Buddhist majority and the Christian minority. In addition, during the years of British rule, they replaced Burmese soldiers with Karen, Kachin and Shan soldiers loyal to the British Christians and this became a big problem because now these minorities in Burmese people became associated with British oppression. So the Burmese could not tolerate this injustice and formed the Burma Independence Army (BIA) in 1941 under the leadership of Aung San. During the Second World War, when the Japanese army began to invade Burma, displacing British soldiers, the Burma Independence Army came over to their side. However, not all Burmese people sided with Japan, the Karen, Kachin and Chin loyal to Britain played a key role in the fight against the Japanese occupation. The Karens formed the Karen Rifles, which participated in guerrilla operations and reconnaissance. The Kachins, known for their Kachin Rangers unit, worked closely with the U.S. Office of Strategic Services (OSS) and conducted sabotage operations. The Chins and other groups also supported the British, helping to organize supplies and defend their territories. All these efforts were not only to defeat the Japanese and drive them out of Burma, but the British promised the ethnic groups autonomy and protection of their rights in exchange for support. But in this battle, the Burmese would also join them. Aung San realized that Japanese rule was no better than British rule, during their years in the country they had burned villages, destroyed temples and humiliated the Burmese. In 1945 Aung San and his supporters defected to the Allies to drive out the Japanese. After defeating Japan that same year, Burma was on the brink of independence, but also faced enormous difficulties.The British temporarily regained control, but their position was weak. Aung San, leader of the Burma Independence Army, became a key figure in the independence negotiations. In 1947 he signed the Panglong Agreement, which guaranteed independence and recognized the rights of ethnic minorities, but on 19 July 1947 Aung San and his associates were assassinated by political opponents, a huge blow to the country. Subsequent leaders, including Prime Minister U Nu, were unable to cope with the growing conflicts. In 1948, the Karen and communist uprisings began, leading to chaos and devastation . However, the government also had its own divisions within the government and so in 1962 General Ne Win staged a coup, establishing an authoritarian regime. His policy of ‘Burma's Path to Socialism’ led to economic isolation and impoverishment of the population. Despite 313 the transition to a limited democracy in 2011, the army retained influence through the 2008 constitution, which enshrined the military with 25% of parliamentary seats and the right to intervene in politics In February 2021, the military staged a coup, annulling the results of an election that was won by the National League for Democracy party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of national hero Aung San. This provoked a new wave of violence. The army launched a campaign of terror: bombing villages, extrajudicial killings and blockades of humanitarian aid became routine. According to the UN, more than 1.5 million people have become refugees and 18 million are in urgent need of assistance [2]. Ethnic armed groups such as the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Kachin Independent Army (KIA) have joined forces with the civil resistance movement (PDF) to form a united front against the junta. Deep ethnic and economic inequalities remain a key problem. Ethnic regions rich in oil, gas and precious metals remain the least developed, with resource revenues lining the pockets of the military elite. Experts emphasize that the conflict will not be resolved without a transition to a federal system that guarantees autonomy for ethnic groups. The international community, including the UN and ASEAN, calls for an inclusive dialogue, but the military refuses to make concessions [3]. Conclusion Myanmar's future balances between two scenarios. The pessimistic one assumes an escalation of the war with the involvement of regional powers such as China and India, which already have economic interests in the country. The optimistic one is the possibility of a peaceful resolution through pressure on the junta with sanctions and support for civil society. As researcher Eugene Mark notes, ‘Myanmar needs not just a change of power, but structural reforms that will transform the army from amaster to a servant of the people’ [4]. Myanmar's history is a story of missed opportunities. The colonial legacy, dictatorship and greed of the elites have turned the country into a symbol of misery. However, even in these conditions, there remains hope. As national hero Aung San wrote, ‘There is no problem that cannot be solved as long as hands are extended to each other.’ Myanmar's future depends on whether its people can extend those hands to each other and find a path to peace.